Gambling With An Edge. Welcome, listeners from the Gambling with an Edge radio show and podcast. Thanks for visiting BlackjackInfo.com! I’m Ken Smith, and I was a guest on the show on January 2nd, 2014. I spoke with hosts Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin about blackjack tournaments, my new strategy cards, and online gambling in New Jersey and Delaware. Gambling With an Edge - Blackjack Ball 2019 We have 2 guests this week discussing the 2019 Blackjack Ball. Max Rubin who hosts the Ball, and Tony S. Who won this year's skills competition. Hence, further increasing their edge. When you play blackjack using basic blackjack strategy alone, you will reduce the house’s advantage to less than 1%, with many games under 0.5%. That means that over the long run, for every $100 you bet, you’ll lose less than $1.

Blackjack probability is just like any other probability in the casino. It’s a means of measuring the likelihood of certain events. You’ll often see probabilities expressed as percentages, but they can be expressed as fractions or odds, too.

Blackjack statistics is a way of measuring your actual results and comparing them to your predicted results. In the long run, your actual results will start to resemble your predicted results. But in the short run, random chance will ensure that anything can happen.

That’s why some players have huge losing streaks, while others have big winning streaks. The casino doesn’t worry about this, because they’ve set up the games and the payouts in such a way that they’re ensured a profit in the long run. That’s a matter of expected value.

Some Definitions Related to Probability and Expected Value

In fact, that’s probably the best way to introduce this blog post—with some definitions of some terms related to blackjack probability in general. That way you’ll be able to dig deeper into the main points of the post below.

Let’s start with the phrase “probability.” The word has 2 meanings. The first is that probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood of an event occurring. The 2^nd is more useful—probability also refers to an event’s likelihood.

Probability is measured numerically, and an event’s probability is always a number between 0 and 1. An event with a probability of 0 will never happen. An event with a probability of 1 will always happen.

An event with a probability of 50% will happen half the time, on average. 50% is one of the more common ways to express that probability, but you could also say that this event has a probability of 1/2 and still be correct. Another useful way to express probability is in odds format. That’s when you compare the number of ways something can’t happen with the number of ways it can happen. With a 50% probability, an event has “even odds,” or 1 to 1 odds.

Expressing probabilities as odds can be useful when trying to decide whether you have an edge or not. In most casinos, the games all have a built-in edge, but blackjack is exceptional in this respect. I’ll get into that a little later in this post.

Another important concept in gambling probability to understand is the concept of “expected value.” This is what a bet is “worth.” A bet’s expected value can be positive or negative, but if you’re a player in a casino, it’s almost always negative. The formula for expected value is simple, too:

You multiply the probability of winning by the amount you stand to win. You also multiply the probability of losing by the amount you stand to lose. You subtract one from the other, and you have the expected value of the bet.

For example, if you have a 50% chance of winning $1, and you also have a 50% chance of losing $1, you have an expected value of 0. That bet is a break-even bet; over time, you won’t win any money at it or lose any money at it.

But let’s say you have a 45% chance of winning $1, and you have a 55% chance of losing $1. Now your expected value looks quite different:

+$0.45 – $0.55 = -$0.10

This means that over time you’ll lose 10 cents every time you make this bet.

Almost all casino game bets have a negative expected value. You’ll either lose more often than you’ll win, or you’ll win too little when you win to break even, or some combination of these factors. That’s how casinos stay in business.

That’s also why gamblers walk away a winner. In the scenario outlined above, you can’t lose 10 cents on a single bet or even a series of 2 or 3 bets. You’re going to win or lose $1 on each hand.

The expected value is an average expected over the long run.

And the long run is longer than most people think.

That’s why the casino can afford to pay winners occasionally and still make a huge net profit overall.

“The house edge” is another way of looking at the expected value of a bet, but it’s only used to describe bets where the casino has an edge over the player.

How the Casino Wins Consistently at Blackjack

You would think that the casino would have no edge in a game like blackjack. After all, the dealer is getting the same cards as the players. He has the same probability of being dealt a blackjack or going bust as a player.

The amazing thing about the house edge in casino games is that it’s usually a simple byproduct of the rules used by the casino for the game. For example, in roulette, the house gets an edge by paying off all the bets as if the 0 and the 00 weren’t on the wheel.

In blackjack, the house gets its edge by making the players resolve their actions and bets first before the dealer acts. In other words, you must make all your playing decisions before the dealer ever acts. This means that if you bust (get a total of 22 or higher), you automatically lose your bet—even if the dealer also goes bust. Since you acted first, and the dealer resolved your bust before having to play, the house has an advantage.’

This is a huge advantage made bigger by the fact that some players don’t play their hands optimally from a mathematical standpoint. In many cases, the best play is to stand on a hand which isn’t likely to win unless the dealer busts. A lot of players have trouble with this.

This advantage is so big for the casino that it can even afford to offer an extra high payout on some hands. In most casinos, a 2-card hand totaling 21 (a “blackjack” or “natural”) pays off at 3 to 2 odds. This means if you bet $100 and get a blackjack, you win $150.

The casinos can afford this bonus payout and still have a profitable mathematical edge over the player. This 3 to 2 payout is one of the reasons that smart players can get an edge over the casino, and I’ll have more to say about that later in this post.

Since there a finite number of cards in a blackjack deck, it’s possible to calculate the mathematically best play in every situation. This is called “basic strategy.” Computer programs analyze the potential results of every possible decision in every possible situation. The move with the highest expected value is the correct playing decision.

The average blackjack player loses an average of 5% of every bet he places at the blackjack table. The average blackjack player is playing with “common sense,” “hunches,” or just pure dumb instinct.

The smart blackjack player, though, memorizes and uses basic strategy in every situation. This reduces the house edge to less than 1%. Depending on the rules variations in effect at a specific blackjack table, the house edge might be significantly less than 0.5%.

But it doesn’t matter how low the house edge is. If the house has an edge over the player, if the player gambles long enough, he’ll eventually lose all his money. That’s how the casinos stay in business.

Blackjack, though, is different from almost every other game in the casino. It’s a game where a smart player with the right strategy can get an edge over the casino. This is beyond the abilities of most players, and even a lot of players who THINK they’re playing with an edge over the casino are mistaken.

I talk about why and how that is in the next section.

How Probability in Blackjack Differs from Probability in Other Casino Games

The reason a strategic player can get an edge in blackjack is because as each card gets dealt, the composition of the deck as a whole changes. In any random shuffle of a 52-card deck, the cards might fall in any given pattern. But sometimes higher-value cards and lower-value cards are dispersed in the deck unevenly.

When I say “higher-value cards,” I means 10s and aces. Since these are the only cards that can create a blackjack—and the corresponding 3 to 2 payout—it’s better for the player if there are a relatively large number of these cards left in the deck.

“Lower-value cards,” on the other hand, increase your probability of going bust when you take a hit. They also make it harder to hit your 3 to 2 payout on the blackjack. If a

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